The Washington chatter of the possibility of war with Iran has been going on for several years now, but is has not come to fruition just yet. However, the last few months the Bush administration began to move somewhat aggressively towards this mission.

It began with the resignation of Admiral Fallon, who was vehemently opposed to military confrontation with Iran. This was the first signal to Iran that US was serious about seeking punitive action against Iran’s nuclear independence. Then Israel practiced defensive drills just in case Iran attacked Israel (reasons for that scenario not explained). And then as recently as the first week of June, Israel carried out an offensive military exercise, which was said to be directed at Iran, as the F-16 and F-15 fighters flew a distance of 900 miles, which is the approximate distance between Israeli bases and Natantz, where Iranian nuclear plant is located. But just as important indicator of the impending war with Iran may be the much rushed diplomatic maneuvers executed by Israel and US in preparation for war.

Israel has made swift moves, primarily behind closed doors, to open bilateral negotiations with Syria, in Turkey, over the status of the Golan Heights. This disputed territory has been captured by Israel during the 1967 War and remains under Israeli control, which is seen chiefly as a negotiation leverage with Syria. As recently as last week, Israel agreed to an Egyptian-brokered, 6 month cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas and Israel is seeking bilateral negotiation with Lebanon.

Meanwhile in the US, the Bush administration seeks to strike SOFA and SFA deals with Iraq by July, which would provide legal means for US soldiers to remain in Iraq. More importantly, the Bush administration is also looking to make the accord’s language ambiguous enough to allow the legal interpretation to justify military confrontation with Iran. And to supplement this, Congress may pass the Iran War Resolution (Resolution 362), which may lead to a naval blockade of Iran. When done unilaterally, absent a UN Security Council Resolution, this move is considered a declaration of war. Of course all this is being done in the background of 4 rounds of UN sanctions against Iran.

Why are Israeli moves indicators of confrontation with Iran?
Although these are my own speculations, I think they are merited by historical and political reasoning. Syria is considered a strategic partner of Iran (not an ally), while Hamas and Hezbollah are Iranian proxies from whom they get much training and weapons. By signing a peace deal with Syria, Israel is eliminating Syria as a possible Iranian aid during the war. Seeking negotiation with Lebanon is a sign of reaching out to Lebanese government in order to empower them against the possibility of Hezbollah’s involvement during the war. Since Hezbollah controls southern Lebanon and is continuously fighting the Lebanese government to stay relevant and powerful in Lebanon’s politics, Israeli’s motivation is to give diplomatic support to Lebanese government to put pressure on Hezbollah. And finally, the truce deal signed with Hamas is to prevent Hamas from being unleashed during the war with Iran. And in case Hamas breaks the deal, which I would suppose Israel fully expects, it provides a diplomatic, international support - or pretext- for Israel to go into Gaza and eliminate the threat. Since Hamas won elections in 2006 and took over Gaza, Israel sought to destroy it. However the timing for it wasn’t right and should Hamas participate in war with Iran, Israel will not hesitate to move into Gaza.

This should be quite an October Surprise… this time for the world.